THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF AFRICAN MIGRANTS IN SELECTED GLOBAL NORTH DESTINATIONS

Abstract

The uneven distribution of international migrants raises concerns, for countries with high migrant inflows, most of which are in the global north, about the efficient allocation of labour according to market demand and supply. The extant literature on socio-economic conditions and networks as major determinants of African migration patterns had not accounted for the effect of imperfect markets on the destination choices of African migrants. The literature on the role of productive markets on migrant distribution has largely not been extended to explain African migration patterns. This study was therefore designed to estimate the effects of destination markets characterised by productivity, and migration costs on African migrants’ distribution in the global north, for the decades 1990 to 2010, and 2017. The study was rooted in the New Economic Geography Theory. A Linear Gravity Model was estimated to capture the effects of destination country markets (measured by the wage potential; employment disaggregated by agriculture, industry and service sectors; size of destination economy; and networks) and migration costs (defined as distance and restrictive policy) on the volume of migration. A Helpman Agglomeration Model was also estimated to determine the cumulative effects of these destination country factors on migration. Emigration from 10 countries, which do not have a significant history of internal conflict from Africa, comprising Egypt, Morocco, Botswana, South Africa, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius and Seychelles were considered. Five previously common destinations- Canada, France, Germany, United Kingdom, United States, and five emerging ones: Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland, were covered on account of data availability. The mixed effects technique was deployed to estimate the model based on country specific conditions. Data were collected from World Bank Bilateral Migrant Stock, the Determinants of International Migration and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Statistical databases. Data were validated at α≤0.05. The size of destination countries positively increased migration between 6.0% and 15.0% indicating that larger markets were attractive to African migrants. Increased wage opportunities raised migration from Ghana 4.0% (2.7) and Botswana 7.0% (2.2). Geographical distance reduced migration from Morocco 3.0% (-3.5), Kenya 9.0% (-7.8), Malawi 9.0% (-2.8), Mauritius 7.0% (-3.4) and Seychelles 3.0% (-2.4). The influence of networks increased migrant distribution in most cases by less than 1.0% and at a higher magnitude for South Africa 7.0% (4.29) and Seychelles 6.0% (2.75). Restrictive destination country policy interventions deterred migration from Seychelles (-2.3) and Ghana (-2.8) at 3.0% each. The agglomeration of African migrants was responsive to employment in the service sector at a magnitude of between 1.0% and 7.0%, and to the wage potential at 4.0% in the cases of Egypt (5.7) and Ghana (2.0). The market potential between 3.0% and 8.0% was not strong enough to indicate core-periphery redistributions. African migrants moved to destinations of larger geographical size, with employment opportunities, influenced by networks, but were deterred by distance, and, in exceptional cases, by restrictive policy. African countries could cooperate with destination economies to organise migrant distribution by labour market demand and supply, and to reduce migration costs