VULNERABILITY OF FOOD CROP FARMERS IN OSUN STATE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

The uncertainties and variation in the pattern of weather have adverse and devastating effects on food crop production in Nigeria. Dependence on weather and low adaptive capacity due to low technology level makes food crop farmers vulnerable to change in climate. Studies have always focused on effects of change in climate on crop productivity, but empirical information on vulnerability of food crop farmers to change in climate is not well documented. Hence, vulnerability of food crop farmers to change in climate in Osun State was investigated. A three-stage sampling procedure was used to randomly select a Local Government Area (LGA) from each of the three senatorial districts in Osun State. Thirty percent of the communities were randomly selected from each LGA. Systematic random sampling was used to select 270 households proportionate to size of the communities. Using a structured questionnaire, data were obtained on farmers’ socio-economic characteristics (age, sex, marital status, educational status, household size and farm size), distance to farm, perception of change in climate (drought, rainfall, flood and changes in temperature) and adaptation strategies employed (crop diversification, change in planting and harvesting time). Vulnerability index was generated from Principal Component Analysis based on the extent of (0-2 = most; 3-5 = more and 5-6 = least) vulnerability of the farmers. Change in climate Adaptive Index was based on number of strategies employed (1 = low; 2 = medium, and 3 = high). Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and Tobit regression at Age of the farmers was 49.6±12.4 years with 76.1% being male, 86.6% were married and 49.4% had at least secondary education. Farm size was 3.1±3.4 hectares with farm distance of 2.7±2.7 kilometers to homestead. Extremely high temperature (41.7%) and prolonged rainfall (37.7%) were the most perceived change in climate indicators. Vulnerability index was low among farmers that were above 60 years (0.2), households with more than 6 members (0.3), land size above 5 hectares (0.5), and the widowed (0.2). Major adaptation strategies were crop diversification (42.9%), change in planting and harvesting time (38.9%) and diversification into non-farm activities (27.1%). A higher percentage of the farmers (55.9%) with low change in climate adaptive capacity were the most vulnerable. Number of farm plots (β =0.02) and access to extension services (β=0.06) were found to significantly increase probability of farmers adaptation to change in climate, while age (β=-0.01) reduced it. Vulnerability of food crop farmers to change in climate was significantly increased with drought (β = 2.38), changes in temperature (β = 0.59) and occurrence of flood (β =1.68), while farm size (β=-0.08) and crop diversification (β=-3.18) reduced it. Vulnerability of food crop farmers to climate change was high with older farmers, large farming households and farmers with land size above five hectares in Osun State.

Keywords: Change in climate, Adaptation strategies, Vulnerability of farmers, Vulnerability index. Word count: 463