STRATEGIC PLANNING AND DECISION MAKING FOR CONFLICT AND PUBLIC ORDER MANAGEMENT IN THE NIGERIA POLICE FORCE

Abstract

In line with its mandate in Section 214 (1) of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution, the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) ensures peaceful coexistence among citizens and restores order during periods of public unrest. Consequently, its personnel are expected to be fair, neutral and impartial, and to act in line with the rule of law. While there is vast research on the actions and inactions, public image and perception of the police, accounts of law and order interventions and the leadership styles of Inspectors General of Police (IGPs), little attention has been paid to the strategic planning and decision-making processes that underline conflict management and public order interventions. The study, therefore, was designed to examine specific factors that influence strategic planning and decision making in the NPF and how these inform its actions during conflict management and public order situations.

Kahnnemann and Tversky’s Theory of Decision Making and Aisen and Fishben’s Model of Reasoned Action and Planned Behaviour served as framework while descriptive survey design was utilised. One hundred and six copies of a self-structured questionnaire was administered on Senior Police Officers (Supols) in charge of Operations in different State Commands across Nigeria to capture their views on situational influences on tactical decisions while purposive sampling was used to collect relevant data using key informant interviews from three former Inspectors General of Police, one Deputy Inspector General of Police, one Assistant Inspector General of Police, one serving Commissioner of Police on influencers of strategic planning and decision making. Quantitative data were interpreted using simple percentages while qualitative data were content analysed.

Internal and external factors influenced strategic planning and decision-making processes in the NPF. Internal influences on strategic planning and decision-making processes include Force Operational Guidelines (14.5%); personality of the IGP (23.0%), professional experience of the Police Management Team (42.0%) and leadership strategic agenda (20.5%). External influences were: political leadership (42.7%), socio-political environment (29.5%), cognitive biases (17.0%) and public opinion (10.8%). These internal and external factors, therefore, determined proclivities to utilise Confrontation (52.0%), Avoidance (9.1%), Compromise (4.0%), Joint problem solving (15.9%) and Strategic withdrawal (19.0%) as conflict management approaches for restoration of public order. Since police procedures outlined in the Police Act lacked specific prescriptions on dealing with extraneous factors and influences on police actions, this attenuated the ability of successive IGPs to stave off external pressure and influences as the political class and leadership had the power to control, appoint and dismiss IGPs at will. This, in some cases, hindered professional decision-making during sensitive conflict and public order situations.

The ability of the Nigeria Police Force for effective decision-making and informed action has been constrained by both internal and external factors that have limited its service delivery outcomes. Government should institute reforms that will ensure security of tenure for IGPs and protection from victimisation for lawful actions taken in line with the Police Act and Force Operational Guidelines.